The IPO That Could Save United

 For two seasons we’ve been calling for two things: a central midfielder and for someone to eradicate the Glazers from ownership of our club. As of yet, neither has happened. And as unbelievable as that sounds, it could happen and it could be a “two birds with one stone” kind of thing. Now, there are always variables at play when it comes to players coming and going, especially with horrible owners like the Glazers. But, if there were no Glazers, the betterment of our club would hopefully come to the forefront of the issues at hand, not fans lambasting the owners for lining their pockets while pushing the club further into debt. And while we continue to loathe the Glazers and pine for a midfielder, it could be two other things that help perpetuate at least one of those fantasies for United fans: Robin van Persie and the United IPO. Here’s a novice’s take on what’s going on – or lack thereof – in this summer’s offseason.

The IPO. We heard rumblings of one last season happening in Singapore, but that never happened. In the last two weeks, we heard confirmation that there would be an IPO and we also found out some of the intricacies of this public offering. Initial reports were that the Glazers would use the IPO funds to help pay down the club’s debt. Figures I saw were anywhere from 60m to 100m. As more details emerged (@andersred), we learned that less and less debt would actually be paid and that the Glazers would individually be able to pocket up to 25m. This, as it should, infuriated fans who didn’t need another reason to hate the owners. It also came to light that employees, including Sir Alex Ferguson, could profit from the IPO by purchasing more stock shares than just the regular investor.

Then, in this past week, the shares debuted on the NYSE to even less fanfare than the bleak initial reports suggested. Here’s where the IPO could backfire, leaving fans with a light at the end of the GLAZERS OUT tunnel. Forbes has Manchester United valued at $2.23 billion. The Glazers, no doubt, like that valuation because it keeps the leverage firmly planted in their corner. When the IPO debut, it was about $14 per share. That price doesn’t make the Glazers happy because the value of the IPO would be a measly $234 million. This low price and deal value could give a potential buyer the leverage needed to try and pry the ownership away from the Glazers. Potential investors haven’t wanted to pay the estimated $2 billion for a club they suspect isn’t really worth that. If this IPO fails to really perform, the Glazers might be forced to entertain offers for the club. Whoever this may be, we hope they have the interests of the club at heart, not a way to make themselves more money. Following? Good. But, you ask how this plays into our ploy to get a CM. And what about RVP?

The Glazers did drop around 50m last off season, our largest transfer window ever. We got Jones, Young, de Gea. We were level with City on points to end to the season, throwing away an 8 point lead atop the table with a month to go. But, what didn’t happen was United paying for the central midfielder we’ve so desperately needed. I’m not one for silver linings, but losing to City – albeit on points – means that the Glazers can’t truly point at our team and tell us we’ll be okay. We need a CM and we need one now. So, in a very quiet offseason for United, we suddenly hear that we’ve launched a bid for RVP, the leagues most enigmatic scorer last season? This and the IPO virtually coincided, and that’s no coincidence. And, while I reserve judgment on SAF and the IPO issue, we have always known that he is well-versed it playing the right card at the right time. RVP’s kit sales alone would generate income for United, so announcing our interest in – and supposed signing of – the player would generate a buzz right when the IPO was set to launch. Now, whether we end up signing RVP has yet to be seen, but I’m 50/50 on it right now. What I do know is that while true United fans will embrace Kagawa, the idea of “van Persie” on the back of a jersey would be exactly the type of move to get people talking about United in an otherwise dull offseason. And if it generated enough money, we might be able to grovel for funds to buy a CM.

In the end, do I really think that we’re going to sign RVP? No. I see it as a tactic to try and drive the share price above $14, for whatever that's worth. I also don’t see that panning out, ultimately leading to a renewed interest from someone in buying our club away from the traitorous owners we’ve been shackled to for the last 7 years. If that does happen, I honestly believe that the club’s best interests will be taken care of. At the forefront of those interests? Removing debt and getting a top class central midfielder. So, at the end of the day – with all these variables floating around – I don’t see the IPO going the way the Glazers want and I don’t see us signing RVP. What I could realistically see are new owners and an investment in the club and CM we’ve needed. Mind you, the outcome of this might be well down the road, but we’ve waited 7 years to get rid of the Glazers. If you asked me to wait two years to get a CM, but that meant getting rid of the Glazers, I’d take that every single time. I think most supporters would, too. But, if the IPO works for the Glazers, maybe they'll invest in a CM? In the balance is A) getting a CM or B) getting new owners and a CM down the line. Honestly, I'd prefer the latter, but beggars can't be choosers. Only time - and money - will tell.

Our Fantastic Back Four - Are They Really That Good?

Despite our most recent success, most notably over the last five seasons, there have always been issues that needed addressing. This is nothing new for any team because there’s always something that can be fixed. But during the last few years, injuries have plagued our defense, lack of creativity has plagued our MF, and true depth has plagued both those areas. With this new squad, we are chock full of options, especially in defense.  This hasn’t always been the case.

Fans will never forget the injured plagued season of three years ago, when it seemed like we never had a fully fit back four. Fans will remember SAF plugging the damn with makeshift defenders (Michael Carrick) just trying to stay afloat. With four titles in five years, SAF made it work. All of a sudden, we have a strong back line with options. When Rio or Vidic would pick up a knock three years ago, we cringed at who would be put back there. So far this season, Rio and Vidic haven’t really played and we’ve still looked excellent. This begs the question – Is our back four really that good? The answer isn’t as clear-cut as what the beginning of this campaign would have you think.

The long and short of it is that our back four, whoever we decide to field, is really that good. However, we can’t get carried away with the hoopla just yet. After the Bolton game, the biggest worry was whether or not Rooney would get a third successive hat trick. After the Chelsea game, the biggest worry isn’t just that we had a crap game in MF – it’s that Chelsea had many scoring opportunities. These scoring opportunities weren’t given in the first four games of the season. With that, we have to keep in mind that Chelsea was a first true test of this young PL season. It could’ve easily been a game that we lost. A big focal point? The defense.

Let’s take a closer look at who we have in the back and go from there. Since part of this article is about the depth in the back, let’s just leave Rio and Vidic out of the equation for now. The ten million pound signing of Chris Smalling from Fulham last year had some scratching their heads. Not now. The lad is a damn fine back and has shown us that. The shaky Jonny Evans of last year seems to be in hiding as he was my MOTM in the Chelsea game. There was mixed reaction when we signed Phil Jones. Some people hadn’t really seen him play at Blackburn and some just worried about his age. So far, Phil Jones is probably our player of the year. Evra didn’t have a good season last year, but has stepped up for us in these first few games. He does get caught out still, so he’ll need to keep addressing that. We also have the Da Silva twins. Quick fan favorites last season, the twins have gone back to being spectators as of recently, which is saying something about the quality of our defense. Rafa has a shoulder issue that’s kept him out, but even if they were both fit – and more level-headed – I still think that Jones, Smalling, and Evra would be the go-to players. These are the pro’s.

Here are the con’s. Our team has lacked youth in the last few years. We went from being one of the oldest teams to now being one of the youngest teams. With that comes the growing pains, as evidenced by the Chelsea match. Keep in mind that the group of defenders we have at our disposal haven’t played together all that much. Playing five PL games pales in comparison to having several seasons under your belt. While we can pat them on the back for the recent play, their youth and general inexperience will get exposed. Evra is currently the staple in the back. He didn’t play with Evans all that much, and before this season didn’t play with Smalling much or Jones at all. Evans has been a rock, but only played with Smalling during a select few games last year. Jones is new. He’s amazing, but he’s new. It takes time to gel together, to understand exactly how to work as a four and not a one, to know what a player will do before he does it. What I’m basically saying is that there is a learning curve. And while we’ve been ahead of this curve all season, there will be times where the vitality and youthfulness of our back four will become a liability rather than an asset. I don’t expect it to happen much, but it will happen. We’ve needed young players and now we’ve got them. And the good and bad that comes along with it.

United fans are quite fickle, but have hopefully adopted a new philosophy this season. We’ve been begging for a youthful side and we’ve got one. United fans must understand the trials and tribulations that go along with this desire. Almost all fans that I’ve encountered have been steadfast and true with our youngsters, especially backing David de Gea when pundits write him off. He’s had a few shaky moments, but he’s also produced some wonderful ones, too. But we’ve been there to support him. Hell, look at everyone’s Twitter avatar. This support needs to carry through to our other youngsters in the back. We haven’t had to give it much thought, but we have to now. To the fans who are already supporting them – good for you. It’s up to us to defend our defenders, through it all.

Follow Jason on Twitter at @JasTheDevil

Blogging Reds, Episode 4

 Here is a link to the Blogging Reds podcast that was recorded this week with me, @TheBusbyBoys, @janmetcalf, and @TheBusbyWay. We discuss the Bolton match, the Benefica match, with looking ahead to Chelsea and Leeds. Have a listen.

Blogging Reds, Episode 4